Voice of America
30 Nov 2021, 16:35 GMT+10
Americans are spending freely and going back to store shopping, knocking out some of the momentum in online sales from last year when Americans were making many of their purchases exclusively via the internet.
Shopper traffic roared back on Black Friday, but it was still below pre-pandemic levels, in part because retailers spread out big deals starting in October. The early buying is expected to also take a bite out of online sales on Monday, coined Cyber Monday by the National Retail Federation in 2005.
In fact, Adobe Digital Economy Index said that it was the first time online sales on Thanksgiving and Black Friday hadn't grown, and Cyber Monday could likewise see a decline compared with a year ago. Adobe, which tracks more than one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, had previously recorded healthy online sales gains since it first began reporting on e-commerce in 2012.
Still, Cyber Monday should remain the biggest online spending day of the year. For the overall holiday season, online sales should increase 10% from a year ago, compared with a 33% increase last year, according to Adobe.
A possible game changer is the omicron variant of the coronavirus, which could put a damper on shopping behavior and stores' businesses. The World Health Organization warned Monday that the global risk from the omicron variant is 'very high' based on early evidence, saying the mutated coronavirus could lead to surges with 'severe consequences.'
Jon Abt, co-president and a grandson of the founder of Abt Electronics, said that holiday shopping has been robust, and so far overall sales are up 10% compared to a year ago. But he said he thinks Cyber Monday sales will be down at the Glenview, Illinois-based consumer electronics retailer after such robust growth from a year ago. He also worries about how the rest of the season will fare given the new variant.
'There are so many variables,' Abt said. 'It's a little too murky.'
Here is how the season is shaping up:
Cyber Monday still king but cooling
Consumers are expected to spend between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion on Monday, making it once again the biggest online shopping day of the year, according to Adobe. Still, spending on Cyber Monday could drop from last year's level of $10.8 billion as Americans are spreading out their purchases more in response to discounting in October by retailers, according to Adobe.
Both Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day online shopping came in below Adobe's prediction. On Black Friday, online sales reached $8.9 billion, down from the $9 billion in 2020, the second largest day of the year. On Thanksgiving Day, online sales reached $5.1 billion, even from the year-ago period.
Harley Finkelstein, president of Canadian e-commerce platform Shopify, which has 1.7 million independent brands on its site, said that so far, Cyber Monday is off to a strong start. Sales on his platform were up 21% on Black Friday compared with 2020 and more than double compared with 2019. He said he believes that independent brands will see better percentage sales gains online than big national chains, as shoppers gravitate more toward direct-to-consumer labels and look for brands with social conscience. And he says these brands have been able to get the inventory. Among some of the hot items on Shopify are children's couches from Nugget and luxurious linens from Brooklinen.
'I think it is a tale of two different worlds,' he added.
Black Friday back but not the same
Overall, Black Friday store traffic was more robust than last year but was still below pre-pandemic levels as shoppers spread out their buying in response to earlier deals in October and shifted more of their spending online. Sales on Friday were either below or had modest gains compared with pre-pandemic levels of 2019, according to various spending measures.
Black Friday sales about 30%, compared with the year-ago period, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks all types of payments, including cash and credit cards. That was above its 20% growth forecast for the day. Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard, said the numbers speak to the 'strength of the consumer.' For the Friday through Sunday period, sales rose 14.1% compared with the same period in 2020 and were up 5.8% compared to 2019, Mastercard reported.
Customer counts soared 60.8% on Black Friday compared with a year ago, but were down 26.9% on the same day in 2019, according to RetailNext, which analyzes store traffic with monitors and sensors in thousands of stores. Sales rose 46.4% on Black Friday but were down 5.1% in 2019, according to RetailNext. Sensormatic, another firm that tracks customer traffic, reported a 47.5% surge in traffic on Black Friday compared with a year ago but that number fell 28.3% compared with 2019.
The changing discount landscape
Unlike in years past, many big box stores like Walmart didn't market their discounted goods as 'doorbusters,' in their Black Friday ads, choosing instead to stretch the deals out throughout the season or even the day. And the discounts are smaller this season as well.
Shoppers were also expected to pay on average between 5% to 17% more for toys, clothing, appliances, TVs and others purchases on Black Friday this year compared with last year, according to Aurelien Duthoit, senior sector advisor at Allianz Research. That's because whatever discounts are offered will be applied to goods that already cost more.
And for the first time, discounts on Cyber Monday compared with a year ago are expected to be weaker, according to Adobe. Still, Cyber Monday remains the best day to buy TVs with discount levels at 16%, compared with 19% discounts last year. Other categories where consumers will find deals include clothing at a 15% markdown, compared with 20% last year. Computers are being discounted at 14%, compared with 28% last year, according to Adobe.
Overall holiday sales could be record breaking. For the November and December period, the National Retail Federation predicts that sales will increase between 8.5% and 10.5%. Holiday sales increased about 8% in 2020 when shoppers, locked down during the early part of the pandemic, spent their money on pajamas and home goods.
Get a daily dose of Orange County Sun news through our daily email, its complimentary and keeps you fully up to date with world and business news as well.
Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to Orange County Sun.
More InformationStarting quarterbacks are mastering the sideline route this preseason. Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Mac Jones of the Patriots are ...
Chicago Bears wide receiver N'Keal Harry is expected to miss up to eight weeks recovering from surgery to repair a ...
New Delhi [India], August 11 (ANI): Legendary Indian cricketer Sachin Tendulkar congratulated all Indian chess players who won medals in ...
Whether you're booking a plane ticket at the last minute or looking to go to a lackluster preseason football game, ...
Of all the subjects taught in the nation's public schools, few have generated as much controversy of late as the ...
At least six journalists have faced prosecution for their professional work in the last month in Iran's western province of ...
ZAGREB, Croatia: Authorities have said that a weekend bus crash near Varazdin in Croatia killed 12 passengers and injured 32.The ...
WASHINGTON D.C.: The U.S. will participate in a joint military exercise in mid-October with India, less than 62 miles from ...
SEOUL, South Korea: South Korea has launched a domestically manufactured lunar orbiter that took off from Florida's Cape Canaveral Space ...
MOSCOW, Russia: A leading Russian scientist in the field of hypersonic flight, Dr. Alexander Shiplyuk, has been arrested on suspicion ...
LOS ANGELES, California: During a meeting that was disrupted by protesters this week, the Los Angeles City Council voted to ...
WASHINGTON D.C.: The U.S. Justice Department announced this week that former Puerto Rico governor Wanda Vazquez has been arrested in ...